GDRThe GDR Institute

About

GDP asks how much an economy is producing.
GDR asks whether it is capable of continuing to produce.

Gross Domestic Regeneration scores what a place restores, beside what it earns. The GDR Institute carries Tenzin Seldon's framework from thesis into practice.

Tenzin Seldon proposes GDR as a satellite account: a record of what a nation holds, published by its statistics office beside GDP.*

Ecology times society times capital gives GDR; the weakest pillar caps the whole.
Three pillars, multiplied

The problem

The problem GDR answers

GDP counts a year's output, so it can reward extraction. In Tenzin Seldon's published commentary, clearing the Amazon rainforest adds to output and the forest's loss goes uncounted.

The claim

Deficits surface later

GDR's central claim is stated so that it can fail: a deficit in any pillar leaves current output intact, then over decades widens the swings in future output and deepens the worst-case losses.*

The evidence

Half supported, half open

On the GDR method's own grading of its evidence, the wider swings have support in research on resource-dependent economies; the deeper losses have a mechanism, tipping points and capital withdrawal, and no direct estimate yet.*

The horizon

Seven generations

The GDR method judges an economy over seven generations and discounts nothing, so a loss borne far ahead counts as fully as one borne now.* The principle comes from Indigenous oral constitutional tradition.

Origin

Tenzin Seldon's question

How do we create and sustain regenerative systems? Tenzin Seldon, who originated GDR, argues that capital should look beyond GDP to what an economy regenerates.

She reads a company by four signals: whether it restores its natural inputs, its communities' strength, its revenue's resilience, and what rising premiums say about the systems beneath it.

Mission

Where the Institute works

The Institute puts GDR to work in government, commercial sectors and bioregions, and designs economic models that sustain prosperity and a habitable planet together. It convenes leaders in business, investment and research with people working in climate, conservation and Indigenous leadership.

Vision

GDR as an adopted standard

The Institute works toward GDR as a standard: recognized by a multilateral statistical body, a routine input for long-duration investors and sovereign risk analysis, and a candidate framework for the agenda that succeeds the Sustainable Development Goals.

The measure

How the measure is built

How a GDR score is made How a GDR score is madeEach pillar scored 0 to 100 against fixed limits, then multipliedIndicatorsEcologyEmissions · Protected land · Material footprintSocietyPoverty · Health coverage · Wealth shareCapitalResilient product · Export mix · Public debtScore against fixed limits0100Multiply, never average×GDR, with a range0100Source: the GDR method
How a GDR score is made How a GDR score is madeEach pillar scored 0 to 100 against fixed limits, thenmultipliedIndicatorsEcologyEmissionsProtected landMaterial footprintSocietyPovertyHealth coverageWealth shareCapitalResilient productExport mixPublic debtScore against fixed limits0100Multiply, never average×GDR, with a range0100Source: the GDR method
  1. Named public sources

    Every value comes from a named public series. A missing value is reported as a gap, with its source, so a thin record stays visible.

  2. A range on every score

    Each score carries an interval set by its data's quality, so close scores overlap and readings are published as bands.

  3. When data cannot be checked

    Where data cannot be verified, as in a nation at war, the method withholds the overall score, may report the ecological indicators alone, and says why.

  4. Companies read apart

    A company track runs beside the national one and is never added into it. Public disclosure supports the ecological pillar for some companies today; the other two pillars need data few companies publish.

The test

How the Institute tests GDR

Tenzin Seldon offers GDR as a conceptual and methodological proposal, and what its scores predict is untested.* A measure earns trust when others can check it, so the Institute's work starts there.

  1. Verify the method

    Outside experts review the method, and before its core is locked every figure must reproduce from named public sources.

  2. Publish the calculation

    The data, code and method behind every score go into a public repository that records each change.

  3. Pilot at every scale

    Ahead of the pilots, the Atlas shows what a reading looks like.

What holds each place back What holds each place backMedian of each pillar, and which pillar is lowest in each unit (ties go to the first in order). Proxy readings, lowfidelity.The Amazon772 of 805 municipalities scoredMedian pillar scoreEcology35.6Society38.5Capital27.1Lowest pillar, share of units48%12%40%EcologySocietyCapitalEl Salvador258 of 262 districts scoredMedian pillar scoreEcology0.9Society66.5Capital30.9Lowest pillar, share of units91%9%EcologyCapitalSociety0%lowest in no unitCalifornia58 of 58 counties scoredMedian pillar scoreEcology18.0Society92.9Capital65.8Lowest pillar, share of units93%7%EcologyCapitalSociety0%lowest in no unitSource: GDR Institute, proxy estimates by municipality, district and county
What holds each place back What holds each place backMedian of each pillar, and which pillar is lowest ineach unit (ties go to the first in order). Proxy readings,low fidelity.The Amazon772 of 805 municipalities scoredMedian pillar scoreEcology35.6Society38.5Capital27.1Lowest pillar, share of units48%12%40%EcologySocietyCapitalEl Salvador258 of 262 districts scoredMedian pillar scoreEcology0.9Society66.5Capital30.9Lowest pillar, share of units91%9%EcologyCapitalSociety0%lowest in no unitCalifornia58 of 58 counties scoredMedian pillar scoreEcology18.0Society92.9Capital65.8Lowest pillar, share of units7%93%EcologyCapitalSociety0%lowest in no unitSource: GDR Institute, proxy estimates by municipality,district and county
  1. A test fixed in advance

    The first test asks whether a rising GDR goes with steadier sovereign borrowing costs. The result that would count against GDR is written down before the data panel it needs is built.

  2. Rankings that must hold

    The ranking is re-run under different limits and ways of combining indicators, and counts as robust only when the orderings agree closely.

  3. Who holds the method

    An originator, an executive director designate, an action committee and a council. The Institute is raising funding from several sources and writing conflict-of-interest rules, so the method answers to its evidence.

The partners

Kinds of partner

The Institute tests GDR at four scales to learn whether the measure holds from a single municipality up to the multilateral system. A partner is named once an agreement is signed.

Local

Communities and municipalities

The municipal track is the least developed part of the GDR method.*

Regional

Bioregional hubs

A hub joins the places that share one ecosystem, such as a river basin, across town and national borders, so the reading follows the land.

National

Governments and national banks

The partner is a government, a national bank or a sovereign wealth fund.

International

Multilateral bodies

The partners are central banks, funding bodies and any institution that already reports on environmental, social and governance (ESG) measures.

The uses

Where GDR could be used

Tenzin Seldon proposes these uses, each still to be tested.*

Insurance and reinsurance

Insurance is the first proposed channel into capital markets:* cover is repriced every year, so it can respond faster than sovereign debt.

The risk in that channel

GDR's first real effect could be to raise the cost of transferring risk for the nations least able to bear it.*

Debt-for-nature swaps

Where a nation's debt is exchanged for conservation commitments, a verified GDR trajectory could become the standard trigger, in place of terms written deal by deal.

* Source: the GDR white paper by Tenzin Seldon.

Connect with the Institute

The Institute's current goal is to test how GDR can assist studies, pilots and economic development partnerships.

The Institute plans a book that carries GDR to policymakers, investors and the public.

Reach out to discuss:

  • Where your region stands on GDR, and which pillar holds it down
  • The paths that could move it: programs, partners and investment vehicles
  • Research, data and press